News & market updates

Sri Lanka earned Rs904bn from vehicle imports in 2025, above the Rs441bn originally expected, Deputy Economic Development Minister Nishantha Jayaweera said. The report ties the receipts and higher imports to central bank policy decisions and exchange-rate moves, noting depreciation from 290 to 310 LKR/USD.

Money market liquidity surplus rose to Rs.200.77 billion, driving a secondary bond-market rally and lower yields. A Rs.125 billion weekly Treasury Bill auction (Rs.40bn 91-day, Rs.65bn 182-day, Rs.20bn 364-day) is scheduled; the rupee also showed slight appreciation.

Richard Pieris Finance launched a senior citizen fixed deposit with monthly interest payouts, offering 11.09% for 12 months and 12.50% for 25 months (25-month AER 13.24%). The offering is backed by the company's Fitch rating A(lka) Stable and eligible deposits are covered by Sri Lanka Deposit Insurance.

Sri Lanka’s rupee closed at 309.65/70 to the US dollar, slightly firmer than 309.72/77, while government bond yields fell across maturities (e.g. the 15.12.2026 bond closed at 8.35/45% down from 8.45/58%).

Standard Chartered forecasts Sri Lanka GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026 (from 4.5% in 2025), expects policy rates to remain unchanged and the rupee near 315 USD/LKR by end-2026; it warns of risks from cyclone damage, limited fiscal space and strained external financing.

Sri Lanka's rupee traded at 309.75/85 per US dollar, slightly weaker than the previous day. Government bond yields were mixed with several maturities easing, Rs.125,000 million of Treasury bills to be auctioned on Jan 21, and the ASPI fell 0.18%.

Overnight money market liquidity rose to Rs.196.08bn (highest since end‑Sept 2025) and was parked at the CB SDFR of 7.25%, fueling declines in money-market and bond yields. Repo/call rates eased to ~7.93%/7.96%, AWPR fell 21bp to 8.98%, and USD/LKR closed ~309.72/309.77 ($59.5m traded).

Gold hit $4,689.39/oz and silver $94.08/oz after US President Trump's tariff threat, driving investors to safe-haven metals and weighing on European shares. Analysts also cited expectations of further interest-rate cuts, central bank gold buying and Chinese silver export curbs as drivers.

IMF projects global growth at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, a small upward revision for 2026 from the October WEO. It expects inflation to ease to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, cites AI-driven investment as a tailwind and warns of downside risks from trade tensions, productivity shocks and high debt.

IMF projects global growth will hold at 3.3% this year (up 0.2 percentage points since October), driven by US/China and a surge in IT/AI investment; it warns concentrated tech investment, rising leverage and potential equity repricing pose notable downside risks.

Foreign investors sold about USD 3.1m (net 948 million rupees) of Sri Lanka government securities in the week to Jan 14, reducing foreign holdings from a near 26‑month high.

The Sri Lankan rupee closed at 309.72/77 to the US dollar, roughly unchanged from Friday, while government bond yields fell across maturities (e.g., the 15.12.2029 bond eased to 9.65–9.69% from 9.70–9.75%).

Sri Lanka added 10,785 new active credit cards in November 2025, raising total active cards to 2,144,202 as economic recovery and lower interest rates boosted usage. Active cards rose 6.8% in the first 11 months of 2025.

HNB CEO Damith Pallewatte said exceptional loan growth in 2025 and a shift from government securities to lending are squeezing bank margins, tightening liquidity and raising funding costs. He warned deposit and lending rates are rising and that vehicle imports and lower single-borrower limits are reshaping credit and capital markets.

The 12 Jan Treasury Bond auction cleared 90.14% (Rs.184.79bn) of Rs.205bn offered, with several maturities issued above market levels (e.g., 15.06.35 at 11.08%), driving secondary-market yields higher week‑on‑week despite a midweek recovery. Weekly T-bill yields rose (91‑day 7.95%, 364‑day 8.48%) and the rupee closed around Rs.309.70/309.80.

Sri Lanka’s rupee was quoted at 309.75/80 to the US dollar on Monday, slightly weaker than Friday, while government bond yields were broadly steady (e.g. 2028 bonds around 9.05–9.10%). The ASPI rose 0.11% to 23,757 and the S&P SL20 fell 0.10% to 6,566.

Sri Lanka Treasury bill yields have edged up, breaking the unusually flat, compressed rates across tenures. Analysts warn the move signals government fiscal needs that could crowd out private credit, push up deposit and lending rates and exacerbate rupee depreciation and fiscal pressures.

Global stocks and futures slid after President Trump threatened additional tariffs on several European countries, stoking trade-war fears that weakened the dollar, propelled gold to record highs and pushed oil prices lower.

US President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff from Feb 1, 2026 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland, rising to 25% on June 1, 2026 unless Greenland is sold to the US. The article links the move to geopolitical expansionism and notes broader macro context including inflation and Fed policy.

Vietnam will hold its 14th Party Congress from January 14; the economy grew 8.01% in 2025 to an estimated US$514 billion. Party leader To Lam urged prioritising macroeconomic stability and inflation control and promoted science- and technology-driven growth, digital transformation and an international financial centre.

Sri Lanka central bank net foreign exchange reserves fell to $2,298m in November 2025 from $2,533m in October, while buy-sell swaps climbed to $3,794m. Buy-sell swaps are inflationary, Parliament's Committee on Public Finance has questioned the central bank's use of risky derivatives, and the IMF provided a $206m emergency loan after cyclone Ditwah.

CBSL signals a likely hold on policy rates in early 2026 and aims to return inflation to the 5% target by H2 2026. Liquidity will be managed via targeted operations and SRR tightening, which may lift short-term rates while anchoring long-term yields and supporting consumer, construction and banking earnings recovery.

Sri Lanka's rupee closed weaker at 309.70/80 to the US dollar (from 309.35/50), while government bond yields fell on the long end and were otherwise consolidating; the 15.06.2035 bond eased to 11.10/15% from 11.15/19%.

Binance Research reports the total crypto market capitalization surpassed US$4.0T in 2025, with Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high amid wide intra-year volatility; the market nonetheless finished 2025 down ~7.9% as macro factors shaped price action.

Sri Lanka's rupee weakened to 309.50/60 per US dollar while government bond yields were broadly steady (e.g. 9.20–9.80% for 2028–2029 maturities and up to 11.20% for 2035). The ASPI was up 0.26% at 23,770.

Foreign portfolio manager Django Davidson said Sri Lanka's stocks are an 'absolutely fantastic opportunity' if the central bank adopts sensible policy, low inflation and policy stability. He noted mortgage lending was only 2.7% of GDP and warned recent currency depreciation and central bank framework flaws could risk another default.

An IMF team will visit Sri Lanka from Jan 22–28 to assess Cyclone Ditwah damage and to help restart the IMF Extended Fund Facility program. The IMF initially estimates the cyclone will reduce GDP by about 0.2%.

An IMF team will visit Sri Lanka from 22–28 Jan to assess Cyclone Ditwah damage and its implications for the paused EFF program after the IMF approved $206m in emergency RFI financing. IMF staff say the shock could widen the current-account deficit by ~$700m and lift 2026 average inflation to 5.4%.

Secondary Treasury bond market on 13 Jan 2026 saw renewed buying that drove yields lower across maturities, with total secondary Treasury trading volume of Rs. 18.53 billion. Money-market liquidity rose to a net surplus of Rs. 182.72 billion (SDFR deposits at 7.25%), call/repo ~7.96%-7.97%, USD/LKR closed at 309.35/309.50.

Sri Lanka sold Rs13,575 million of Treasury bills on tap at average yields of 7.95% (3-month) and 8.48% (12-month), bringing total bills sold this week to Rs110 billion; settlement 16 January.